Using Bayesian Approach In Handling Mortality Ratios Deviations

Abstract

Using Bayesian Approach in Handling Mortality Ratios Deviations was emerged as this research idea to meet the need of a scientific model handling the deviations resulting from using standard mortality tables that are inconsistent with the nature of the Egyptian context,where Bayesian is a high degree of precision statistical estimation approach depends on mixing information derived from previous experience with newly collected data, has a high degree of precision. The fundamental and influential difference between mortality rates derived from the experience outcomes in the Egyptian market and mortality rates derived from tables used in pricing of life insurance contracts. The results found the equation of the general trend line for safety margin rates is a sixth-degreepolynomial equation with a significant level of 99%. Equation used to calculate the value of mortality rates based on tabular values was estimated.